What kind of hitter do the Reds need? (part 1)
I’ve been thinking about this topic over the last couple of days and rather than try to squeeze stats and thoughts into a bunch of tweets, I’ll put it all on here.
First let me throw some 2011 stats at you:
2011 NL Central as Right-handed batters
Rk PA 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 STL 3617 191 6 104 283 553 .277 .338 .436 .774 117
2 MIL 4167 190 21 133 292 767 .259 .315 .427 .742 107
5 CHC 4280 211 21 100 222 787 .266 .312 .406 .718 101
10 CIN 4483 176 12 109 318 869 .248 .309 .379 .688 93
11 HOU 4505 224 16 81 275 799 .255 .305 .376 .681 91
13 PIT 3604 164 17 56 292 756 .244 .310 .359 .668 88
TOT 59371 2636 229 1373 4465 11264 .251 .313 .386 .700 96
2011 NL Central as Left-handed batters
Rk PA 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 CIN 1845 88 7 74 217 381 .278 .366 .480 .846 132
4 MIL 1946 86 10 52 189 316 .265 .347 .421 .768 111
5 STL 2625 117 16 58 259 425 .269 .344 .409 .754 108
9 CHC 1848 74 15 48 203 415 .233 .320 .387 .708 95
12 HOU 1643 85 12 14 126 365 .265 .326 .367 .692 92
13 PIT 2459 113 18 51 197 552 .245 .307 .381 .688 89
TOT 39373 1758 258 908 3567 7636 .255 .327 .398 .726 100
The Rk (rank) is where the team ranked in the NL in OPS in that category.
sOPS+ is how the team compared to the NL in OPS in that category after
you adjust for the team's home ballpark.
By first glimpse, it appears obvious that what the Reds need is some right-handed hitting. Clearly with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, the Reds have a couple of very good left-handed hitters in their lineup and the team could use a good compliment to their success from the opposite side of the plate.
Of course, that’s just the surface. Here are a few other facts:
- At 1845, the Reds had the 3rd fewest plate appearances by left-handed batters in the National League.
- 75% of all National League plate appearances in 2011 were against right-handed pitching. For the Reds, that number was even higher at 78%.
- Reds right-handed batters had the most plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers in the National League (3539), and it wasn’t close (341 more than 2nd place Houston).
- Reds right-handed batters hit .239/.298/.369 vs right-handed pitching in 2011, 10th best in the NL for an OPS+ of 92.
- Reds hitters (both sides of the plate) led the NL with a .278/.349/.445 line against left-handed pitching.
Normally, I’d say that the most important thing is to simply get a quality hitter. However, we’re moving into the point in the off-season where teams can start getting good deals with players who just want a job. The Reds can save a lot of money by finding someone below market value who can improve one of the deficiencies of the team.
The Reds don’t need to be focusing on acquiring a right-handed batter for their lineup. In fact, their real need is a batter that can hit right-handed pitching well. Someone like Raul Ibanez (career .286/.351/.488 vs RHP) or Kosuke Fukudome (.368 career OBP vs RHP) might be the best options for the Reds given their financial situation. Or, if they work the trade market, Seth Smith (.290/.364/.518 vs RHP) is rumored to be available. You don’t need a great player to improve the lineup, just someone who is very good 75% of the time.
NOTE: Before you bring up Chris Heisey’s MLB splits, let me make 2 points. First, Heisey’s splits were much more typical in the minors (.923 OPS vs LHP, .802 vs RHP). Second, a lot of players have dramatic changes in their splits over one season of data, which is essentially what we have for Heisey. His big league splits MIGHT be real, but I’m not convinced it’s a valid data point right now.
NOTE2: I should point out that Vince Gennaro was on Clubhouse Confidential yesterday on MLB Network discussing a lot of this same stuff. He solidified some of my thoughts for me, which partly inspired this post. Check out the video if they ever put it up on their site.
